Russian consumer sentiment recovered slightly after plummeting to an all time low in the previous month, although consumers were even more concerned about the outlook for employment and the high level of prices.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator rose 3.6 points on the month to 85.3 in September from 81.7 in August. Consumer sentiment has fallen sharply over the past year given the significant weakening in economic growth and the onset of the Ukraine crisis, with confidence now standing 12.4% below the level seen a year earlier.
All five of the components which make up the Consumer Indicator rose between August and September, apart from Expected Personal Finances which remained unchanged after hitting a record low in the previous month. Durable Buying Conditions rose by 13.6%, having the largest upward impact on sentiment, despite the high cost of credit and the increased cost of imported goods as a result of the weaker rouble.
While the MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Indicator increased in September, consumers were increasingly concerned about the job market, with the Employment Outlook indicator sliding to a new series low. Moreover, consumers’ dissatisfaction with the current level of prices rose to the highest on record after a ban on food imports by Russia.
The recent car scrappage scheme has yet to have any impact with the the Car Purchase indicator hitting a new series low in September. The weak rouble has pushed up the cost of imported components whichhas increased prices.
Commenting on the latest survey, Philip Uglow, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators said, “Sentiment picked up a little but remains sharply down on the year. Consumers are still worried about their jobs and are hurting from the persistent high level of prices.”
“The continued low level of our consumer indicator and the weakness seen in our business survey as well, suggest we’ll be lucky to see positive GDP growth in 2014.”