The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose by 5.5% on the month to 73.0 in April, almost offsetting March’s drop to a series low of 69.2.
Four of the five components that make up the MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Indicator improved in April.
An 11.2% improvement in long-term expectations for business conditions provided the greatest degree of support for sentiment in April as the “Minsk 2.0” ceasefire brought about a considerable calming in the Ukraine conflict which, in turn, lowered the threat of fresh economic sanctions from the West.
The recent rate cuts by the central bank appear to be having a positive impact on sentiment. Households reported an improvement in their financial position in April and more of our panel considered it to be a good time to purchase big-ticket items such as cars and durable goods.
Looking ahead, however, consumers were more downbeat than ever before in their outlook for their personal finances in a year’s time.
The survey provided further evidence that inflation has peaked and has now started to ease following the recent appreciation of the rouble. Fewer consumers expected prices to rise over the next year, although more than 80% of our panel continued to anticipate that they would.
Meanwhile, the government’s efforts to subsidise mortgages appears to have gone some way in improving sentiment on the real estate market. Even so, the majority of our panel continued to consider it a bad time to invest in a house as mortgages remain prohibitively costly in spite of recent rate cuts by the central bank.
Commenting on the latest survey, Philip Uglow, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators said, “There are tentative signs that the long-term decline in consumer confidence may well be coming to an end having hit an all-time low in March. The March rate cut from the central bank and other policy action on the real estate and car markets appear to be having an impact. The slight easing in Ukraine tensions also appears to be helping. Sentiment, though, remains at a very low level with consumers hurting from the high cost of living and a squeeze on their personal finances.”
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MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Rises In April - Outlook For Business Conditions Improves Following Ceasefire
Date 08/05/2015