The September 12 week will see a number of important economic data releases that mainly focus on consumer spending, inflation, and the manufacturing sector. There will also be some fresh data on consumer confidence, as well as a few numbers that will help fill out expectations for growth in the third quarter.
The data on retail sales for August on Wednesday could surprise a little to the upside, but on the whole it is not likely to be a stellar performance. Sales of motor vehicles were decent in the month.
Prices for gasoline declined, and should cut into sales at service stations. Back-to-school shopping was lacklustre, but demand for emergency supplies related to large severe weather events could boost some categories like building materials. Worried consumers were cautious about discretionary spending, such as restaurant meals or entertainment.
On balance, retail sales should be little changed from the prior month.
Inflation numbers will be released on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
More stable prices for oil and food will mean less uncertainty behind the forecasts, but the three indicators this week will reflect that in different ways.
The Import and Export Prices Indexes for August is due on Tuesday. Increases in import prices will probably be moderate due to only a small change in petroleum costs, and smaller increases in items like foods and motor vehicles. Export prices should benefit from favourable exchange rates and demand for agricultural products.
The Producer Price Index for August on Wednesday should reflect further moderation in input costs, particularly in the easing of supply constraints related to the earthquake in Japan. Costs of a few commodities may still be on the rise, like gold, cotton, and tobacco.
The Consumer Price Index for August on Thursday should...Read more