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Provided by Market News International
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Welcome to the Weekly Market Commentary from DGCX, providing you with a snapshot of what’s happening in the energy, precious metal and currency futures markets.
The commentary and analysis included in the DGCX Weekly newsletter is provided by Market News International (MNI), a leading UK-based provider of news and intelligence. For more information on MNI, please visit www.marketnews.com.
Please note that the observations and views expressed in this newsletter do not reflect the views of DGCX and are solely the view of the writer (Market News International).
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Economic Data Overview
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With the data for employment and retail sales out of the way, markets will now focus on inflation. The March 14 week includes back-to-back-to-back releases of three inflation indicators on Tuesday through Thursday. These will capture the first wave of increases in gasoline prices in February as well as a number of reports related to the factory sector. Markets will be watching to see if the recent pickup in orders and employment continued into March. Tuesday's FOMC meeting will probably serve as a placeholder until the April 26-27 meeting. Signs of a more sustainable recovery and stable inflation expectations will need another month or two of data before the Fed is likely to start any shifts in policy. The FOMC won't have the February CPI data when they meet on Tuesday and the PCE deflator for February is not released until Monday, March 28.
The three-in-a-row release of February data for import prices, producer prices and consumer prices will probably confirm Fed Chairman Bernanke's expectations for only modest pass-through of higher input costs (at least so far) and gains at the core should be consistent with inflation moving slowly towards the Fed's target of 1.7%-2.0%. Data on import prices for February on Tuesday should once more pivot on the petroleum component. The largest gains in prices came towards the end of the month and overall should produce only moderate gains for the month, although March could prove ... Read more
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