The highlight of the US economic data releases for the coming week will probably be the preliminary numbers for fourth quarter GDP on Friday.
Decent consumer spending, modest inventory building, higher net exports, and an improved residential housing market combined to increase the pace of growth as 2011 came to a close. While there are already doubts that it will signal significant upward momentum as the first quarter 2012 gets under way, it will still be a stronger number in a long string of lacklustre data.
The December numbers for new orders for durable goods on Thursday is likely to be quite strong, but it will be largely attributable to a massive increase in new orders at Boeing that will boost the transportation component for a second month. The underlying trend is for higher new orders for durable goods, and the ex-transportation reading should be for modest growth.
The Richmond Fed's Survey of Manufacturing on Tuesday should add to the perception that the factory sector retains some strength at the start of 2012. The general activity index in the reports from the New York and Philadelphia Feds both suggest that expansion continued at a moderate pace in January.
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for December on Thursday will include a number of methodological changes, and there will be revisions in the data. Nonetheless, the overall trend of gains should remain intact, and indicate that the recovery continues at a moderate pace.
The final reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January on Friday could show some revision to the 74.0 in the preliminary report. Weekly measures of confidence suggest that it will be small. Although gasoline prices are on the rise, food prices have moderated. Conditions in the labor market are somewhat better. On balance, consumers remain quite cautious by historical standards, but are regaining some optimism in the near-term.
The BLS will report on state and regional unemployment in December on Tuesday, and mass layoff activity in December on Wednesday. In the former report, we will get some detail of where the declines in the national unemployment rate occurred. In the latter, we should get confirmation that large scale layoffs were less than usual at year-end.
The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday....Read more