SIFMA today issued its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the fourth quarter of 2014. The full report is available at the following link: www.sifma.org/govtforecast4q2014/
Highlights of the forecast include:
SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $197.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2014, 3.7 percent lower than the $204.5 billion issued in 3Q'14 (actuals include cash management balances).
Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $36.0 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the fourth quarter, down 18.2 percent from the $44.0 billion issued in the third quarter.
The median forecast for net issuance of Treasury coupon securities is $186.0 billion for the fourth quarter, 2.5 percent higher than the third quarter's net issuance of $181.5 billion.
Survey participants expect to see net bill issuance of $11.0 billion in the fourth quarter, about half of the net issuance of $23.0 billion in the third quarter. The expectations for the net bill issuance in the fourth quarter varied widely among the survey respondents, showing no consensus in the direction or the scale in forecast for net bill issuance.
Survey participants forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest Federal agencies to stay flat at $110.0 billion in the fourth quarter. The projections reflect a decrease in Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's issuance of 36.6 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively.