SIFMA today issued its quarterly government securities issuance and rates forecast for the third quarter of 2014. The full report is available at the following link: http://www.sifma.org/govtforecast3q2014/.
Highlights of the forecast include:
SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $164 billion in the third quarter of 2014, much higher than the net redemption of $64.5 billion in the second quarter of 2014 (actuals include cash management balances).
Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $44 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the third quarter, up 15.8 percent from the $38 billion issued in the second quarter.
The median forecast for net issuance of Treasury coupon securities is $176 billion for the third quarter, 11.8 percent lower than the second quarter's net issuance of $199.5 billion.
Survey participants expect to see net bill redemption of $12 billion in the third quarter, much lower than the net redemption of $264 billion in the second quarter. The expectations for the net bill issuance in the fourth quarter varied widely among the survey respondents, showing no consensus in the direction or the scale in forecast for net bill issuance.
Survey participants forecast total gross coupon issuance by the four largest Federal agencies to increase to $138.2 billion in the third quarter. The projections reflect a fourfold increase in Fannie Mae's issuance.